After having dominated most of Indian politics in its 137 years of existence, the Congress is not just standing on the verge of existential crisis, but also being pushed aside from the position of the prime opposition party. A rapidly expanding BJP and the national ambitions of parties like the Aam Aadmi Party and Trinamool Congress are not making it any easier for the grand old party. 

After facing drubbings in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls and a string of losses in Assembly elections, the party is now struggling to regain its lost electoral ground ahead of Assembly polls in 11 states, due within next 18 months, and the big electoral battle of 2024 where it will face the Herculean task of taking on the BJP-led NDA. 

Apart from poll debacles, the Congress continues to reel under factionalism, which has already made the party lose power in states like Punjab and Madhya Pradesh. It is now facing a smilier situation in Chhattisgarh, where the power tussle between the two biggest leaders — Bhupesh Baghel and TS Singh Deo — is accelerating with every passing day. 

As the Congress continues to make reinvigorating efforts under the leadership of its interim chief Sonia Gandhi, let’s take a look at the challenges that lie ahead for the party: 

Congress organisational polls

Even before the party faces elections in nearly a dozen states before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it will elect a new president in its organisational polls, which will be tentatively be be held in September this year. Soon after, it will face a double-challenge from the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. 

The Congress leaders are saying that Rahul Gandhi will be the next president of the party as the leaders are unanimous on the name. In the last working committee meeting, all the leaders were unanimous on his name while some were quiet but did not oppose his candidature. 

But nobody knows if Rahul Gandhi is willing to take up the job as he has been refusing to take over after he resigned following the 2019 poll debacle. 

On the other hand, poll strategist Prashant Kishor, in his presentation to the party’s top brass in April this year, had called for a non-Gandhi as president while leaving the important posts of UPA chairman, parliamentary board chief and general secretary coordination for Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, respectively. 

On the question whether a non-Gandhi party chief could be the rescuer for the crisis-hit Congress, political commentator Amitabh Tiwari told DNA India: “A non Gandhi President, if allowed to function independently, can bring fresh ideas to the table. However a revival of sorts is a long drawn process as the entire organisational machinery needs complete overhaul. Party will need to rebuild cadre on the ground, raise public issues, identify new voting blocks, get back votes lost to regional parties, provide an alternate  vision for the country among other things.” 

“A non-Gandhi may not come with the baggage the family has which can act as an advantage. However the Gandhi name acts as a glue for the Congress party keeping it together. A non-Gandhi risks disintegration of the party as well because competing leaders could thwart roadmap built by the new President. So it has its pros as well as cons,” he added. 

Assembly polls in 11 states

The next challenge for the Congress, which is just around the corner, are the Assembly polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Not only does it faces the task of dethroning the BJP, which has strongly established itself in the two states, but also an invigorating Aam Aadmi Party, which has already pulled Punjab out if its hands. 

In 2023, as many as nine states are scheduled to go polls, which include Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — the only two states where the party is in power. The other states which will choose a new government next year are Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana. 

While the party faces the challenge of anti-incumbency in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it is also struggling with factionalism in the latter. 

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

When the Congress faced a crushing defeat in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls earlier this year, political experts made the forecast for the next Lok Sabha Elections, saying that a splintered opposition, led by the Congress, will make it a cakewalk for the BJP to retain power at the Centre. 

Time and again, one opposition or the other has been making attempts to bring all the non-BJP parties under an umbrella to take on the saffron party in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. However, those efforts were stonewalled by the personal ambitions of regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal. 

 

Till date, the Congress-led opposition has been unable to target the ruling party on the real issues, and instead its narrative has more or less revolved around criticism of Narendra Modi. 

Experts point out that the Opposition has three major duties – one is to highlight the ruling party’s shortcomings. The second is to provide an alternative, and the third is to cooperate with the government when it is doing a good job and not just oppose it for the sake of opposing. 

Amitabh Tiwari believes that since the Congress has never been in the opposition for a long period, it doesn’t know how to act like one. It has been unable to highlight the failures of the government in an effective manner, he opines. 

Highlighting our success stories too: Congress

When questioned why its narrative has been revolving around the ruling party’s failures, the Congress contends that it has also been highlighting its success stories on accounts, where it claims the current dispensation has failed.

“During the UPA rule, apart from economic growth, social justice, gender equity, we did an unprecedented amount on every single front. So, we are not discounting our successes at all. We are reminding the people that this is what happens when there is an efficient government, and this is what happens when there is an inefficient government,” Congress spokesperson Anshul Avijit tells DNA India. 

Retaining the prime opposition party status

Back in December 2021, when Mamata Banerjee declared during a meeting with NCP chief Sharad Pawar that the UPA no longer exists, some Congress leaders rushed to highlight the need to put up a united front. 

Barely two months later, the party lost power in Punjab at the hands of AAP and now the two parties were ruling two states each — Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and AAP in Delhi and Punjab. The comparison apparently brought the two parties at equal power in the opposition. 

The AAP is now strategically contesting polls in states where the BJP and Congress are involved in a bipolar fight. Arvind Kejriwal’s idea is straight and simple — replacing Congress as the main opposition party and emerging as an alternative.   

The upcoming elections will decide whether the Congress manages to revive itself or is further pushed to the brink of extinction. The election of the party president will also be a crucial factor to decide the Congress’ performance.